Wonko.net

A Scientific Argument for a Supreme Being

2011-08-12T11:08:00.002-06:00

In reading the article “Existence: Why is the universe just right for us?” in New Scientist (20 July 2011), I was somewhat dismayed at the tone and dismissal of God as a viable hypothesis. In fact, the very article dismissing God as “needed” was the very article in which the strongest scientific argument for a supreme being existing.

If, as theorized, there are an infinite number of universes, each with its own physics, then inevitably a being (or beings) able to both perceive across those universes (omniscience) and able to manipulate those universes (omnipotence) is inevitable. In an infinite number of tries with an infinite variation in physics, anything is possible.

Would such a being leave their signature in the ice of a glacier in Norway? Not likely. Rather we would be hard pressed to perceive this being with our limited abilities. That said, there are ways to tell that there is manipulation happening. The handiwork of this being would be present when random events are altered in some way. A potential example of this may very well be the “Goldilocks paradox” also discussed in this article. As either the elements or the physics that produce them are manipulated, precise conditions are produced.

It is possible that, like with the above being, in an infinite number of tries with an infinite variation in physics, our universe would be created randomly. We would only be here were that event to happen, thus we would only be here to ask the question were it to happen.

That said, the Supreme Being discussed above would fundamentally alter the multiverse by its very existence. By having a force that can manipulate the multiverse in whatever way it chooses, by definition at that moment the random element goes away, and we are now looking at a multiverse that has been changed by either active changes or passively allowing things to continue as they are. Either way, no event throughout the multiverse could truly be considered random as even random events are being ‘allowed” by this being.

Thus, if the multiverse hypothesis proves to be valid, it at a minimum suggests the presence of a Supreme Being, and perhaps even demands it.

Women and Confused Hair

2011-06-18T22:00:00.000-06:00

Women. Cornrows never look good.

I repeat for the confused. Cornrows NEVER look good.

Contrary to the argument posed by most women of Bo Derek, even she didn't look good in them. First she had stylist after stylist, a custom bikini, and a body and eyes that drew your attention from the atrocity on her head. And remember, that was the SEVENTIES people! If it was fashion, it was bad. It isn't she looked good in it, she just pulled it off better than anyone else could.

Girls, I get it at camp. You are in the woods, and generally grimy. It is a low maintenance hair style that when no one is going to look at you perhaps makes sense, with the exception of the incessant scalp scratching once it has been in more than a couple of days.

When you are where other people can see you, please don't get them. Trust me. You won't be the one to pull them off.

Back to our regularly scheduled program.

An Open Letter From a “Global Warming Denier” to the Scientific Community and Politicians

2011-06-07T14:14:00.001-06:00

Global Warming, or “Climate Change” as it has now been re-dubbed, is bunk. To say this is politically incorrect, and will subject one to great derision. Yet a large portion of the population, including college educated and well read individuals feel just this way but are afraid to say it. Their votes say it. Their buying habits say it. Their attitudes say it. And in dark corners, when the coast is clear, they will occasionally even verbalized it, though in hushed tones so as to avoid the world caving in around them.

I hope to explain where the politicians and scientists have gone wrong in my opinion. I stress, this is an opinion piece, but I believe it is an important opinion that is being snuffed wrongly.

Science is the foundation of our modern society. The scientific method has served us well, and continues to serve us well. Unfortunately when you mix politics with science, what you get is a caricature of the scientific method that is flawed. Combine political power, scientific justification and the equivalent of a religious zeal, and you get bad science, bad policy and a confused and angered populous.

Perhaps the first explanation of this effect would be to highlight another popular problem, the ozone hole. In the simplest terms, in the time we have been measuring, there was never a time there wasn’t a hole. Can you with 100% assurance tell me that that hole wasn’t always there? Not just there, but perhaps even a vital part of the balance of the earth’s eco-system? I understand the experiments in test tubes suggest that refrigerants will wipe out a thousand times their volume in ozone, but can you with assurance say that is what has happened? In the strictest sense, no. As we have no way of knowing the state prior to our measurements, any suggested change is purely speculative. Yet zealotry would have everyone believe that this is a foregone conclusion, and settled science. Those who suggest otherwise, or even venture to attempt to find evidence to the contrary are derided, defunded, and discarded.

Global Warming has taken this process begun with the ozone layer, and taken it to levels that are absurd, and beyond rational thought.

So how can one possibly discount Global Warming as fact?

I will not even touch on the credibility lost in the email scandal, though it was damning. That was a symptom, and not the problem. I will make some much more fundamental arguments.

Personally, my doubts began very early. As a youth I subscribed to Discover Magazine. This was well before its current Disney ownership. I remember distinctly the cover of an issue, “Are We Heading Into a New Ice Age?” I read it with great concern that my home would become a frozen waste land as temperatures continued to plummet precipitously. Yet in the Spring, flowers bloomed, birds sang, and things were pretty much the same. I continued to brace for the impending ice age that was coming though.

So as Global Warming concerns began to be raised, at once there was a dissonance. How could we have been heading into a new ice age just a few years ago, and now suddenly we are all going to cook by the greenhouse effect? I was thoroughly confused at the 180 the scientific community had made in just a decade. How could the numbers change so drastically in that short a period of time?

As I learned more about statistics, and in particular, marketing, I began to become somewhat skeptical about many of the charts and trends that were shown in many capacities. Global Warming began to look less like a scientific endeavor, and more like a marketing campaign. As the politicians got involved, it only exacerbated the problem, and started throwing policy behind what was still just a theory at best.

In the archaeological record, where I live used to be under water. The surrounding areas were lush forests and jungles, and are now arid deserts. Does the climate not change over time as a natural consequence? I learned that the emissions of one volcanic eruption can dwarf any impact had by man, let alone the hundreds of “active” volcanoes around the world. I learned that animals emit vast quantities of “greenhouse” gasses, and that our own exhalation is rich in nothing less than carbon dioxide, considered one of the most evil of all the greenhouse children.

My first concern with the theories being presented came down to; the climate has changed, will change, and is changing. It goes up and down both cyclically a randomly, and to project any changes out over any significant amount of time becomes foolhardy. Note the change from the looming ice age to the advent of Global Warming. Trends reverse naturally over time, and statistical anomalies occur. We can’t predict the weather tomorrow, until you can do that reliably, don’t tell me what is going to happen in 10, 50 or 100 years from now. We just aren’t that good yet.

My second concern became funding. As politicians became concerned, funding was allocated to prove global warming. Not to find out if it was true, but to prove it. In fact, I watched as any evidence to the contrary was marginalized and even ridiculed. Isn’t the scientific method supposed to encourage dissention as a means of proving the theorem? Isn’t that the purpose of peer review and other checks and balances?

So as more people found evidences, more politicians threw money at it, and more politicians threw money at it, more scientist were determined to be the ones to prove Global Warming once and for all. This cycle continues today, and has created in my opinion an unholy alliance. The science is skewed by the funding. If you are researching to prove it is true, there are a myriad of funding sources. To prove it wrong though, well that is not politically correct, and thus the funding is very limited, and the results derided. This is a case of policy determining the science, rather than the science determining the policy.

Add to that the zealotry of certain groups, politicians and most egregiously, scientists, and you have a powerful pendulum swing that pushes way beyond any possible results the data may actually suggest, and even creates an environment where data to the contrary is suppressed and discarded as irrelevant or dangerous. Zealotry is the antithesis of science, and undermines the very foundation of the scientific method.

The third nail was the fact that weather is actually cooling! I live in a hot, arid area. We had record rainfall, snow, and record cool temperatures for the last several years. This fact was recognized by the Global Warming community and the term was changed to “Climate Change”. Seriously? Is this a joke? So it isn’t actually getting hotter, but we are changing the climate. We don’t know what way, or how, but we MUST do something about it. I think you lost me on that argument.

The fourth and most damning problem in my mind is the whole economics of Global Warming. The answer is always some form of carbon tax. Involved in that is some form of exchange. We will offset our carbon by planting trees in South America. They were going to plant them anyway, but we are buying their credits so we can keep doing this supposedly evil thing we are doing. Explain how that solves the problem? Then look at the people who are getting rich off of this plan, the poster boy being the great Al Gore himself. He has gone from suckling at the Heinz fortune to making a fortune himself. Not on the speaking circuit, but in carbon credits. Don’t you see a bit of a conflict of interest here? As politicians see there is money to be made in this new market, wouldn’t it be in their best interest to form it in favorable ways for them? Not only that but to actually invest and profit off of it?

The Global Warming debate has become one of profit and greed. It no longer cares about the science, “that is decided”. Those who can profit from it will continue to run down that road and push that policy with greater and greater fervor in spite of the lack of their predictions of catastrophe playing out even in the slightest.

In short, are things warming? They were, it looks like they may be turning, but yes for the last while they were.

Is it the fault of man? Perhaps we have some to do with it, but with the overwhelming effects Mother Nature brings to bear, we are but a drop in the bucket.

Does that mean we shouldn’t do anything? Well, it is a low probability, high cost event. So yes, we should pay attention to it, and perhaps change some of our habits to mitigate it.

And now we are to the part where I believe we can find some common ground. You see if you look at the evidence rationally, and pull carbon taxes out of the equation, there are still plenty of things we can and should do. Often these also meet other needs and goals, and so are even more important.

For instance, we need to cut our use of fossil fuels. Partly because the emissions muck up the air in our cities, partly because it is a finite resource that will eventually go away, but mostly because of national security issues. Some of the most evil despots in the world are sitting on the largest reserves of oil. As long as there is demand for oil, they will have power. When the demand for oil drops, their power goes with it. By moving away from fossil fuels we make the world better.

But, they say, a carbon tax is the only way to make that transition! To which I say, again, bunk. I drive a plugin electric car. Not because of carbon taxes, but because it is cheaper to run when I commute to work, and is more fun and convenient to run around the neighborhood. There was a tax credit, and I took it. Believe me, you get more with honey than with vinegar. I would love to put solar panels on my house, but they are cost prohibitive. Tell me how a carbon tax is going to make them more accessible. Get the costs down on some of these technologies and you will see changes as they become economically viable.

Taxing me on my exhalations is only going to tick me off and make me try and get the politicians who implemented it out of office. Get us energy independent, and I will be far more likely to vote for you regardless of whether you have an R or a D in front of your name.

There is a rational middle point, if someone is willing to look for it. Just stop trying to force policy that doesn’t actually solve the real problems as some kind of mystical solution.

It is May 25th. Do you know where your towel is?

2011-05-25T13:31:00.001-06:00

If you were suckered by the title, then you probably already know what Towel Day is.

Keep yours with you. Show the world you are a hoopy frood that really knows where their towel is. I've got mine!

Go HERE to find out more about Towel Day.

Ties: Essay 1

2011-05-21T13:54:00.000-06:00

Being somewhat adjoined to ties for the better part of my life, I have learned many things that apparently have slipped what seems to be the majority of the tie wearing public's attention. As I am so opinionated on this, I can't help but think that I will have more to say on the topic, thus this is Essay 1.

That said, guys... figure out how long a tie should be and deal with it!

In as simple of terms as I can make it, here is what you should aim for. The bottom of your tie goes to a point. The corners of that point that meet the sides of the tie should be between the top and bottom of your belt when you are standing erect.

No. It is not acceptable to have three inches of shirt showing below your tie, no matter how keg-like your belly is. Likewise, it is inappropriate (though somewhat less egregiously so) to have it hanging down and covering your fly.

A tie that is tied too short or long expresses one of two things, ignorance or indifference. Neither of which are desirable qualities.

I promise, if you take the extra time the first few times you tie a new tie to get it just right, it will come easily from that point on. If you are wearing a tie it is because you care enough to dress up. Care enough to know how to dress up then.

'Nuff said... for now.

Memorial Day is coming. Are you ready?

2011-05-17T10:59:00.000-06:00

I usually work Memorial Day, but we always take time to go to the cemetery and put flowers on family graves.

Over the last year I have gone pretty crazy with the family history stuff, and I found several dozen people who are my direct ancestors at our cemetery. One of my plans this Memorial Day is to take my children on a bit of a family history tour around the cemetery, and introduce them to a few of the people who made it so they could be here.

This actually isn't so hard once you have the information available. I took a map of the cemetery and put a highlight mark where each of the markers are, and it pretty much routs itself. The thing that is fun for the kids is having stories about these people. I am amazed at how much information is available about even mundane things about these people, and I want my children to know what sacrifices were made so they could live the cushy, techno-centric, freedom-loving life they enjoy.

Has it taken some time to pull it together? Sure it has. But the ability to give my children a sense of their place in history is well worth it.

So take some time and prepare for this Memorial Day. Don't just throw flowers at blocks in the ground. Make them real people so we really do remember them. Isn't that what Memorial Day is supposed to be?

Osama and Obama and the non-Freudian slip

2011-05-14T11:42:00.001-06:00

A good friend who happens to be quite a bit to the left, posted a video on Facebook showing TV host Glenn Beck accidentally calling Osama Bin Laden, Obama. It looks pretty damning.

Here is the problem: everyone does it. And I mean everyone. Type "Osama Obama slip" into YouTube and the number of people who have video of them calling Bin Laden "Obama" or vice versa is staggering. As some of the culprits are VERY pro President Obama, are these all Freudian slips?

The short answer is no. Osama Bin Laden was in the news before anyone even knew who Barack Hussein Obama was. The name Osama was burned into our collective psyche on September 11, 2001, and for those who witnessed the towers fall or have been groped at an airport checkpoint, that name will be a hiss and a by-word for the rest of our lives.

Then comes the obscure Senator Obama onto the scene making history in his own way, and well, the rest is history.

Are we to take it when someone swaps the second letters of two words to be some sinister Freudian event? No. So why do people focus so much on an obvious slip up? Well, perhaps the more Freudian message is transmitted by those who focus on an individual, and use that as a means of vilifying them. To my mind it tells me that, for the people who are vilifying the person who slipped up, no matter what that person says they will find a reason to lash out. This is neither a left nor right phenomenon, but it is very much a telling part of the current political scene, and is is a real shame.

You know, if my friend had posted one of Glenn Beck's more out there claims, I could roll with that and understand why there is disagreement. I disagree with what Beck says regularly. Unfortunately, posting of that slip up as proof of Beck's evil just showed me that my friend would post anything to support their opinion regardless of how legitimate that claim was. That is disappointing. It is just shy of name calling, and not what I would expect in a mature debate or even a reasoned dig at ones political opponents.

We need to start talking policy and leadership, and stop calling names or worrying about superfluous stuff.

Like that is going to happen any time soon.

Heeee's Baaaaaack!

2011-05-14T10:32:00.000-06:00

I have been meaning to resurrect this blog for a couple of years now, and I intend to do so now. I need a place to rant uncontrollably, and this will be my home for it. We'll see how long this lasts :)

A Rant About Sales Taxes & SST

2004-05-14T00:57:00.000-06:00

I have nothing against sales tax. In many ways it is the most fair form of taxation we have. If you spend more, you pay more. It is (more or less) equitable.

To date sales taxes were collected based on the location of the store where the items were purchased. That is no longer the case. Now there is the "Simplified Sales Tax" which is supposed to cure all our ills.

'Cept it doesn't.

The theory is sound, but the practice is extreme. If you tax based on the location of the end user, you defeat the benefit of buying online because it levels the playing field.

Does this sound like one of those letters you get where it starts out, "In order to serve you better..."?

Let's take one of the more extreme examples of the lunacy this will impose as of July 1.

We mail brochures. In the past we paid sales tax at our local rate because we were the "end user". Now that it is based on the final location it changes everything.

You see, the mailers get printed and then sent to the mailing house. The mailing house puts the names on them and then ships them. Our clients then get these scrumptious little pieces of paper in the mail, and come running for our wares.

We are at X location, so we pay the tax at that rate. End of story.

Now it gets complicated. Oops. I mean "Streamlined".

Now if they go directly to the mailing house, and are then mailed directly, the individual customers become the points of taxation. This means that the taxes need to be calculated for every brochure that goes out based on the Zip+4 it went to. If you are sending 25,000 of these things, that means you have to figure out the Zip+4 for each of them, then calculate the tax rate for each of them, then calculate the taxes for each of them. You must then report the disposition of each Zip+4, and the amount taxed for each.

Look at Utah. One of the least populated states has over 400,000 Zip+4 routes. Is it even practical to figure out all that even with computers?

But it is done, and there will be no going back. The theory is sound. The execution is going to drive people to drink.

You can see if your state is on the hit list by going to http://streamlinedsalestax.org. I hope you have a good accountant on staff if you are in one of the 20 states that are going with SST!

Blogging

2004-05-11T00:06:00.001-06:00

OK, I thought Blogging was dumb, weird, and just plain WAY out there.

I still do in many ways, but I think I understand it a bit more.

The ability to express your thoughts on a particular topic in a fairly rapid fire way, and expose it to a large number of people quickly is quite alluring.

What I will be interested to see is what happens when I post about some of my less politically correct ideas :) Stay tuned.

I am also fairly impressed with the ease of the software. I stumbled into this iteration of Blogging in my search for a gMail account, but I am impressed with it's simplicity and ease.

SPAM & POPFile

2004-05-10T23:51:00.000-06:00

About six months to a year ago my email traffic spiked to about 500 emails a day with around 98% SPAM. It made my account almost useless, but it was not an account I wanted to lose.

I initially tried filters (a miserable failure), and then gave Mailwasher a try. A good program, but I spent so much time working it, the advantages were almost lost.

In a frenzy of despair I finally came upon Bayesian filtering, and found POPFile to be a popular choice.

Within a day it was over 95% accurate and rising. After a week it was 98% and closing in on 99% accurate. Since December 23, 2003, I have classified 19,479 messages with an accuracy of 99.59%. It dropped a little bit lately as some of the more savvy Spammers are learning tricks to get through the filters. Even so, it is down to no more than a half a dozen a day.

The downside is minor yet worth noting. First, if you are expecting a message from someone who has never emailed you, be a bit paranoid and pay good attention to your mail for the next couple of days. Odds are it will end up in the SPAM folder the first couple of times.

Do not set your email up to empty your trash folder on exit. Every couple of days you will want to go through and check to make sure something didn't make it through. Usually they stand out like a sore thumb so it isn't hard, but you need to do it. If you don't you may lose a half dozen messages in a given month after it is well trained. It isn't bad if it is a newsgroup posting, but if it is your ebilling from your bank, you could have an issue.

All in all I would have to totally revamp my entire email account structure if it were not for POPFile. It still takes a while to download all the messages, but I don't have anywhere near the problem getting through them as I did.

Not only that, but it is free to!

Catch it at http://popfile.sourceforge.net/

gMail Mark II

2004-05-10T16:03:00.000-06:00

What I am finding interesting is that there appear to be no accounts left. This has the potential to be one of the best marketing tools ever devised.

When you get an account, you get two to give away. Those two people get two accounts, and so on. It is almost viral. The best part for Google is that they should have a relatively predictable rate of growth in the beginning. This prevents ten million people from overwhelming their servers on day one.

It also adds some exclusivity. Not a bad piece of thinking on this intro.

gMail

2004-05-10T16:01:00.000-06:00

Well, I signed up for this to try and get a gMail account. Don't think it will work, but you never know unless you try.

If anyone has one they would care to send my way, I would be more than willing.